Beware the ides of March
Should we worry about the ides of March or did Julius Caesar simply become a little too big for his sandals? He was undoubtedly a bold leader, with few defeats in battle and someone who wasn’t afraid to fly in the face of convention, after all it was he who crossed the Rubicon at the head of his army.
As the previous Donald Trump confidant, John Bolton, remarked, ‘All international laws are invalid, meaningless attempts to constrict American power,’ The world mocked and dismissed this reference during the previous administration. The new rottweiler, however, Elon Musk, appears to have very much hit the ground running – green initiatives, aid, legal redress all being dismissed, and tariffs being thrown around with gay abandon.
Such actions are bound to throw the mandarins of Europe and the UK, amongst others, into a flux as they have thrived for many years on a rules-based structure. The pace of change is also causing panic within the opposition Democrat Party, who are struggling to react as new measures are thrown like bullets from a gatling gun, as Trump’s team ‘flood the zone.’
The only response so far has been through legal challenge in the courts with very busy judges attempting to slow his plans to lay off staff from USAID, the birthright citizenship and general use of his Presidential power. The US administration has responded by challenging the authority of the judges. Should this war be taken to the Supreme Court, we should remember that six of the nine judges are ‘Trump’s people.’ In the 18th Century, French judge Montesquieu wrote about the importance of separation of politics and the judiciary, to ‘guard against tyranny and preserve liberty,’- his point is becoming clear.
At the time of writing, 50 decrees have been made so far, from pardoning rioters to curbing ‘gender radicalism.’ The President has certainly been very busy. This brash approach seems to have already won many hearts and minds in the US, although in such early days, we may not have yet felt the shock waves.
What does this mean for investment markets? From recent jumps in both Bond yields and Equity markets, it is clear that investors have mixed views. In addition to boosting investors’ confidence, the immediate economic implications of reducing the size of a bloated state are positive and maybe, long overdue.
Nevertheless, the Rule of Law has been a key factor in the longer-term strength of both the UK and US, and indeed Western Europe. Having studied Law many (many) years ago at University, I retain a keen interest in observing any potential legislative abuse. As such, the longer-term implications of riding rough-shod over such institutions may raise potentially grave questions, especially at a time of political division, as is increasingly the case elsewhere. Trust in institutions is a key factor behind how they work. Notably, government debt markets function on the trust one is going to get the money back, that governments are unlikely to fall.
Such a nervous outlook has to raise volatility and so should make us err on the side of caution a little. The US Government 10-year Bond yield, a key benchmark, has recently jumped from below 3.8% in September to near 5% in January, before falling back down to near 4.5% in four months. For perspective, a 0.1% move in bond yields can make bond investors sweat.
Whilst the economies remain robust, our view is that the core has to revolve around investing in stocks that are growing due to a strong business franchise, have a tried-and-tested management team and a robust balance sheet – frankly the core of the McInroy & Wood approach. Any weakness in economic prints, however, would lead us to look at taking a slightly more cautious approach and make us reach for the more defensive playbook.
Any finally, we all know what happened to Julius in the end, ‘Et tu Brute?’- perhaps those closest to him may bring his downfall.
For completeness – the ides of March falls on the 15th March!
Written in March 2025 by: Leigh Himsworth, Investment Manager, McInroy & Wood
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Time for Growth
“Life is but a winter’s day in February, embrace it and prepare for spring”
February is often a time for hope and looking forward with the positivity of new growth. One may be excused in feeling apprehensive. The arrival of Donald Trump into the White House feels more akin to ‘shock and awe,’ and whilst the UK media appears to thrive on mocking many of his outbusts, perhaps economies do need a fundamental rethink.
Following years of turmoil, with the Financial Crisis, Brexit, COVID, the invasion of Ukraine and the resulting inflationary shock, many western governments have struggled to react, being behind events and always fighting the last battle as opposed to thinking forward and anticipating.
For all of the media negativity, Rachel Reeves is absolutely right to focus on generating growth in the economy, although I would suggest her approach needs to be ‘flipped on its head.’
According to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the forecast for 2024/5 is for government spending of £1,276bn against tax receipts of £1,149bn, leaving a deficit of £127bn that will add to the near £2.8trillion total debt pile.
Pre COVID, UK annual debt repayments were roughly £38bn. Now, with more debt and higher borrowing costs, this number is £105bn – for context, the education budget is £89bn and defence £37.5bn.
Such imbalances continue to spiral negatively – more tax is raised to plug these holes leading to further cuts by consumers and businesses.
Rather than governments trying to do more and more, it has to be time to ask what do small businesses and budding entrepreneurs actually want and need and support their ideas as opposed to Whitehall dictat telling them. The UK is awash with ideas, indeed much of the success from history was via privately-financed intiiatives, such as the Victorian infrastructure of canals and railroads that largely stand to this day. Government provided an improved framework with working conditions and electoral mandates widened.
We are fortunate to have a prime example on our doorstep that has recently moved back into the limelight. Bradford’s City of Culture has begun with a bang, despite the weather trying to freeze everyone or blow them away. Bradford for me is a prime example of an area that often comes low in economic league tables, yet any visitor would say it is a hive of exciting ideas with cultural richness – to extract more from this would simply require asking the citizens what is needed rather than telling them.
As an idea, Bradford is full of great Victorian architecture that stands to this day in splendour – the Wool Exchange, St. George’s Hall, the Town Hall, Listers Mill and a personal favourite, Saltaire! Please take some time this year to enjoy the City of Culture, its architectural gems and the food – the best on the planet!
Interesting fact: when Salt’s Mill was completed in 1853, it was the largest industrial building in the world!
Written in February 2025 by: Leigh Himsworth, Investment Manager, McInroy & Wood
The Critical State of Frontline Organisations
This space is designed to foster collaboration, spark innovation, and strengthen our collective impact on Yorkshire’s charitable sector. Whether you’re looking to share lessons learned, discuss pressing challenges, or celebrate community successes, we invite all voices to contribute. Together, we can build a more connected and informed funding community, creating positive change across the region. Join us in shaping the future of Yorkshire’s philanthropy—your insights are valued and welcome.
To kick start it, here is my perspective on the critical state of frontline organisations, with a call for more strategic funding and grown-up relationships with funders. These are my personal views.
Frontline charitable organisations are facing a storm of challenges. Often the cornerstone of local communities, these organisations are on the front lines addressing urgent issues, from food insecurity and homelessness to mental health support. But with rising operational costs, more competition for grants, and tighter funding, many of these organisations are now facing an existential crisis, particularly here in Yorkshire.
Recent reports indicate that over 40% of small organisations across the UK are at risk of closure without immediate financial intervention, and Yorkshire is no exception. Grassroots organisations, uniquely connected to the communities they serve, often have unparalleled insight into local needs. Yet, unlike larger national organisations, they lack the financial reserves to sustain their work amidst escalating costs and shrinking donations from individuals whose own finances are stretched by the ongoing riding cost-of-living.
For Yorkshire’s grantmakers, this moment calls for a targeted and flexible approach. Localised grants, offering unrestricted funding and operational support, can provide the stability these organisations need to survive and thrive. Yorkshire’s grantmakers can also play a pivotal role by offering multi-year funding, which would enable grassroots organisations to plan long-term and focus on expanding their impact instead of scrambling to secure short-term support.
Funders back-office processes also need to adapt and recognise the times we are in. I recently heard of one funder that still requires every receipt for a grant of under £3000 and another that pays grants retrospectively. Who covers the costs of such poor grantmaking? The frontline organisations themselves or other funders. Neither is acceptable.
There’s never been a more critical time to champion local organisations in Yorkshire. By investing in the region’s grassroots initiatives, grantmakers can ensure vital services remain available to those who need them most, empowering our communities and creating a sustainable legacy. In partnership, we can build resilience across Yorkshire’s charitable sector and, ultimately, support a stronger, healthier, and more inclusive region for all.
Written in November 2024 by: Jan Garrill, Associate Director of Yorkshire Funders